In the past couple of years, I found myself constantly confronted with the idea and possibility that we might end up with another World War any moment now. There were so many times when we were incredibly close to starting it, but not even once did we see the big countries: Russia, China, EU, and USA, stepping over their borders and engaging in full-on attacks against each other.
I’m going to enumerate some of the events I believe almost everyone knows about or has heard off:
1) The 9/11 event, which forced an entire country to take armed action against terrorism.
2) The Afghanistan and Iraq wars, which are now followed by the Syrian conflict and the ever growing Islamic State threat.
3) North Korea and South Korea were on the edge to the point where they were ready to start shooting each other again.
4) Japan got struck by a merciless natural disaster and for a moment, its entire economy seemed on the verge of collapse, but most importantly the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
5) The Ukrainian Crisis happened and with it, the political map of the world changed.
These events will be the trigger for bigger and more visible events. When looked at them from afar (as someone born and raised outside of those conflicts areas), they don’t seem to be so scary. During the course of the past years and even further back a century ago, the world was riddled with such events. Almost each and every country was struck by at least one.
Looking at them, I believe the world is in a constant state of turmoil and change. However, no matter how close we get to WW3 or how close Hitler would have been to winning the WW2, there are always moments, events, situations which miraculously appear on the chess board and change the whole plot of the story.
Without D Day and ‘coincidental’ failures regarding some of Hitler’s scientific experiments (I’m referring here to many of Hitler’s orders to use technology in various erroneous ways, such as turning the fighter jet Messerschmitt Me 262 – heavily armed and faster than ANY Allied fighter – into a light bomber and reconnaissance instead of fighter/interceptor. Another error can be considered the attempt of building bigger and heavier tanks, such as Landkreuzer P.1000 Ratte tank, which was literally a moving fortress, but it couldn’t cross bridges or move on roads. The Maus tank, which was a mammoth tank facing similar problems. A lucky accident can considered the late development of the Horten Ho 229, the very first stealth bomber), he would have surely won the war and maybe now, I would be writing this document from a Nazi Romania.
Without the 9/11 event, the Afghanistan and Iraq war would have never happened and subsequently, believe it or not, neither of the many rebellions against various dictatorships which happened afterwards throughout the world. Ex: Egyptian Revolution and the Sudan protests.
Now, I’m not talking about some sort of great plot made by the USA, but rather the mentality of the people. Seeing how the united armies of NATO with USA in front advanced towards changing the political and social situation in both Iraq and Afghanistan lit up a spark of hope into the hearts of those who believed they could change for the better. (I’m not going to talk about any of the mistakes the armies made intentionally and unintentionally, for now)
As a result, the situation in that part of Asia changed and a unified Islamic State as dangerous as it could have been otherwise never got the chance to form.
Let me remind you that if the Afghanistan and Iraq war didn’t take place, right now the Islamic State would have been composed of the following united states: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and maybe Turkey. My reason behind this deduction is simple. All of them have a single religion dominating the countries: Islam. By nature, the radicals of the religion do not consider themselves as belonging to a state, but rather through their very existence they form the said state.
Without the USA and NATO’s interference in those areas, the radicals would have been quick to force their way to the leadership of the countries and enact a union under a single banner.
Thanks to the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, an unprecedented rupture took place between the Islamic States. You only need to look at the map to see that those two countries are actually at the very CENTER of ALL Asian Islamic countries. Through simple deduction and by looking at the recent battles of the muslim extremists, I believe that such a union would have been quite possible if not for those two wars.
The only reason you can disregard this theory as a simple supposition, is because USA and NATO actually decided to take the fight to them and won, which by all means is a good thing.
Now, if we look a little at the whole plot, what did the struggle cause? In simple terms, it made sure the Islamic State didn’t unite all those countries, but at the same time caused instability within involving countries.
Jumping at the Crimea incident, we now see two major events taking place not that far away from one another, but with major politic, economic, and social results.
If this incident never happened, Russia’s relationship with EU would have grown and Ukraine would have inevitably joined EU and then it would have been shortly followed by Russia and even Turkey. Interesting enough, it doesn’t sound too bad, but what sort of results would it have had on the entire world?
First of all, do remember that USA is on good terms with EU. If Russia joined EU, then the old grudges between the two countries would have softened up a bit, maybe even be completely forgotten or healed. From there, just a few more steps and all the countries would have been engulfed in a globalization movement.
Let’s not forget about China becoming even better friends with Russia since their economic relationships would have risen.
However, with the Crimea incident, things between Russia, EU, and USA are on the edge.
Hm, it doesn’t sound that bad, does it?
Well then, let’s look at the entire world, shall we?
Is there a location where the countries aren’t on the edge? Well, not really. Even inside EU there are frictions between countries, but at a smaller level and not as visible in the Media’s eyes. However, the centers of friction are placed nearly strategically so as to not permit the enactment of any superstate capable of either unifying or conquering the entire world.
Thus, the Islamic State is being strictly controlled through the rupture caused by the Afghan and Iraq wars, Jordan and Israel are kept on edge to make sure the barrier between the Islamic State and the African ones are kept in check. Russia and Europe keep glaring at each other thanks to the Crimea Incident. China and Russia are kept from allying because of China’s economic relationships with EU and USA. Japan and South Korea represents a standing frontier between China and USA. North Korea and South Korea are on constant alert with each other. Russia and China can’t take either side unless they want the relationships between each other and USA to worsen. (I think some of these cases are a bit far fetched, but oh well, three years ago no one thought Crimea would return to Russia)
With all the things said, let us as ask the question of this article: Are we at war or not?
So far, no. We are not at war and nor will one appear any time too soon unless it is desired to happen, and it will somehow bring an unprecedented advancement from a politic, military, economic, social, and even religious point of view to most parties involved. However, all the countries are kept on the edge as though it is about to happen. This way powerful alliances can’t be made too easily, and old ones can’t be broken without terrible consequences.
However, looking at all of these from another point of view. How do they affect the individual?
I will speak about this matter in the next article. Stay tuned and don’t forget to Follow this website and drop me a Like on my FB page if you want to be kept up to date!